Historical Stock Market Data

Historical Stock Market Data

Here is an intersting article I found. It is written by Jim Yih - "retire happy" 

I like numbers so I don’t shy away from the fact that I like statistical analysis and data.  As a result, I’ve collected some data on the stock markets that may be interesting to some people.

Before I show you the stock market historical data, I want to put forth my disclaimer: This data has been accumulated over many years and I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the data.  I think the data is still interesting so I hope you can find some interest in it.

Bond Returns vs. Stocks 1988 – 2018

   Year              Bonds          Stocks (tsx) 

20181.4-8.9
20172.59.1
20161.721.1
20153.5-8.3
20148.810.6
2013-1.513.0
20123.67.2
20119.7-8.7
20106.717.6
20095.435.1
20086.4-33.0
20073.79.8
20064.117.3
20056.524.1
20047.114.5
20036.726.7
20028.7-12.4
20018.1-12.6
200010.27.4
1999-1.131.7
19989.2-1.6
19979.615.0
199612.328.3
199520.714.5
1994-4.3-0.2
199318.132.5
19929.8-1.4
199122.112.0
19907.5-14.8
198912.821.4
19889.811.1


Interesting observations on a calendar year basis (from 1938 to 2018):

Like most distribution charts, most of the calendar year returns fall between -10% and +30%.

Generally speaking, markets spend more time making money and less time losing money

  • Markets have been positive 73.7% of the time
  • Markets have been negative 26.3% of the time

Investing is less about perfection and more about probabilities.

  • Investors who buy and hold have a historical probability of making money 73.7% of the time. This is good data for passive investors. 
  • Investors who are trying to out guess the market need to win more than 73.7% of the time to do better than the markets.  That’s pretty challenging.

Three years of consecutive growth

  • Markets go up and down.
  • The longer any bull market goes, the greater the likelihood of a market correction or even a bear market.
  • This is not a prediction by any means but just a reminder that volatility is a reality with the markets.

Markets tend to rebound after bad years

  • The TSX has experienced back-to-back negative years only twice over the past 75 years.
  • The TSX was negative 20 out of 79 calendar years.
  • 18 out of those 20 years, the market bounced back with positive return in the following calendar year
  • The average return of years that follow a negative year was 14.6%
  • Internationally the data is very similar but there has been a little more volatility and also greater downside risk.

The bottom line is that markets go up and down.  As much as we hope markets will stay positive, the risk of a correction is always there.  You can't accurately predict when it's going to happen but when it happens, there is also a very high chance of rebounding the calendar year following a negative year.